Does the MACD Cross Anticipate the Move? | Algoryn Series — Volume 3

This study tests a widely held concept in technical analysis: that a MACD crossover can anticipate price movements and help identify potential market entry and exit opportunities. The rule employs the MACD with standard settings—12, 26, and 9 periods—calculated based on closing prices. Signals are generated when the MACD line crosses the signal line, in accordance with the entry and exit criteria defined for the test. This is an exclusively long-only strategy, with no stop-loss levels or price targets, and no exploration of alternative parameter configurations.

The results are compared against a "buy and hold" strategy—maintained from the first day through the end of the period—applied to the EUR/USD pair, Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index, and gold. The analysis covers the period from September 30, 2021, to September 30, 2026, assuming an initial capital of 10,000 USD and accounting for costs applied by the backtesting platform.

This is a preliminary historical study. It does not claim that the MACD reliably anticipates future price movements, provides no buy or sell recommendations, and offers no guarantees regarding future results.